Wave's Crest

The wave of protests in the Arab world may not have crested for the last time with the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak from Egypt.  In fact it seems to only have made the wave spread.  Now Bahrain is seeing its first large-scale demonstrations and they're turning violent.  Clashes in Iran, Jordan and Libya have been mounting between government loyalists and opposition supporters, and Yemeni protests have gathered strength and grown increasingly more deadly.  Fresh protests have even broken out in Iraq.  Huge questions are facing Arab governments across the region as even the most seemingly stable regimes are starting to question their own grip on power and are having to tread lightly.  How the U.S. reacts will be critical.

  

Bahrain, an island nation off the eastern shore of Saudi Arabia of only 1.3 million and host to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet is a particularly interesting case.  The Sunni royal family have been called to answer for what the largely Shia majority claims to be widespread discrimination including limited access to jobs and social benefits and almost no say in government.  The small nation has long been seen as as bulwark in the region to Shia Iran for both the U.S. and Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia whose own Shia population, while comprising only 10-15% of the total, have their own fair share of grievances and just so happen to live in the oil-rich Eastern Province.  Bahrain is a huge banking hub for the Middle East and its proximity and close relationship with the House of Saud put the Saudi Royal family and the U.S. in a precarious position.  While the State Department and the White House have used condemning language in reference to Iran's violent crackdown on protests, they have only called the shooting deaths of protesters in Bahrain "disappointing" and expressed "deep concern".  The Saudi government again has left no question as to who they support in the protests-- not that many in the region would be particularly surprised by this-- but still, the rising fervor is making the royal family here call in to question their own approach to reform.  Some voices are even coming out in favor of speeding up that process while they still have the opportunity under King Abdullah*.  But regardless, eyes here as well as in Washington will be watching with keen interest as events transpire just across the causeway in Bahrain.  

U.S. Response

The U.S. appears to be walking on eggshells in statements coming out of Washington regarding the region’s unrest, especially since many felt that those made during the Egyptian uprising effectively sold out Mubarak.  These feelings seem to be coming mostly from people who saw Mubarak and his monopolization of power in Egypt as a necessary evil and the key to holding together the peace deal with Israel and maintaining regional stability.  Many of those same people fear that a truly democratic Egypt would see the rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood, who they believe would steer the country towards empowering an Islamist regime possibly on par with Iran.  The U.S. has been put in a tough position.  

Protesters around the region are demanding democracy-- a political system and an ideal the U.S. claims to promote and support around the world.  There are many, however, that fear that democratically elected governments in countries like Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine and so on would be anti-American, anti-Israeli and in the worst case align themselves with Iran. The U.S. will make every effort to ensure this doesn't happen.  Washington even has a history of not recognizing democratically-elected governments in the past whom they perceived to be threatening (see Lebanon, Gaza).  Washington will feel that it must also maintain and negotiate its "special relationships" with both Israel and Saudi Arabia.  Additionally, there are leaders such as Ghaddafi of Libya and formerly, Ben Ali of Tunisia who have maintained power and crushed opposition, but just so happen to be on good terms with Washington at present and are tough on terror.  It appears to be a tenuous at best, a quagmire at worst. 

So what should Obama and the State Department do?  What should they say? In Egypt, they eventually felt like they had no choice but to come out in support of the protesters' demands.  Israel and people who fear an Islamist takeover of the Middle East weren't too happy about it.  In the other Arab countries they still have the opportunity to push their weight, money, and influence around.  They'll also be keeping in mind their strategic military interests (like the naval base in Bahrain, fighting extremism in Yemen), their economic interests (oil and natural gas from a number of countries), and political interests (relationships with Israel, authoritarian dictators and royal families).  Do they attempt to maintain these interests at all costs, or would they be better served ushering in change that may be inevitable. 


It will be interesting to see how they walk the tightrope in between until they're forced to show their hand.  Condemn violence here, call for restraint there.  Applaud free speech, but ask that protesters be realistic.  Be outraged by a state's violent response to protests in one country, but don’t focus on it so much in another.  Don't appear to be selling out any friends. Don't put yourself in a tough position if your friend gets ousted.   Don’t make new enemies. Don't embolden and/or legitimize old ones.  It will be difficult for the U.S. to navigate this wave of protest in the Arab world successfully.  At least for now though, the protesters are only demanding more democracy.  How that democracy would and will proceed is another question entirely.  One that will keep many guessing, and more than a few worried.  

*http://en.news.maktoob.com/20090000590112/PrincefearsSaudiuprisingwithoutspeedyreforms_report/Article.htm