After re-reading "Smoke" and having a nice long chat with a Canadian friend of mine whose lived here for quite a while, I've decided that my previous post is in need of significant critique. Statements like that Saudi is "by no stretch of the imagination in danger of revolution," or that no one here "is operating under the belief that anything will come of these calls to action", were put in way too absolute of terms. Also, my generalizations about the situation here and the Saudi public at large were based on limited experience and don't give the voices of dissent or the many disaffected people here in the Kingdom any credit whatsoever.
My sampling of Saudi youth consists of 18-20 year old university students who come across as significantly spoiled and content in their lives and their ideas about the future. I'm not sure that they would be in favor of bottom-up reform, but it also is very true that they most likely would not share those opinions with me and certainly not in a public or school setting if they did happen to hold them.* Also, the Westerners I'm most likely to encounter are fed the same party line about people being happy and that the state is in complete control and wouldn't be well informed of any popular dissent-- quite similarly to your humbled blogger.
The truth is that there are a lot of people who I don't encounter who are young, unemployed, don't feel represented by the government, and lack the opportunities that the Saudi Arabia of as recently as 10 years ago offered them. Sixty percent of the population is under 30, and unemployment figures are sharply skewed to mask the problem. A vast majority of the population is not "pacified", as I put it, and it was unfair of me to make such a hasty generalization based on such limited exposure. The old remedy of handouts and benefits is outdated and unsustainable and most likely will cease to be effective. People want jobs. My students even, who seem so carefree and contented, will find that the jobs simply won't be there when they graduate. The world they will enter is not that of their parents when there was more money to go around to a lot fewer people. Rising food prices and inflation have compounded these issues and wages and benefits in many peoples' case are not sufficient enough to start and support a family.
It should also be remembered that there have been voices of dissent even among the Saudi royal family, which itself is experiencing fractioning, and that this is a recent phenomena. People high up have joined voices with influential Saudis living abroad in making calls for changes including more freedoms for women and implementing a constitutional monarchy. These voices obviously face strong opposition from the many influential clerics and imams as well as a majority of the royal family, but their existence is something that needs to be recognized.
It is also impossible to predict how the government will react to demonstrations if they do take place, and it is even more difficult to say how and if Saudi police and military will take action against their own people including arrest and/or violent repression. Additionally, the international community including the White House and U.S. based Human Rights Watch have called for Saudis to allow peaceful protest which may prove to further temper the governments reaction and will, at the very least, put a spotlight on it.
Personally though, I am still skeptical that much in the way of revolution will come from the actions being planned for this month or in the immediate future. In addition to the power that the Saudi government itself will wield in order to limit demonstrations and any resulting uprising, the international community, especially (needless to say) the U.S., has a lot to lose if the power structure here is disturbed. If things were to start going down here like elsewhere in the Arab world, it's hard to imagine that the U.S. would play as passive a role as they have in other countries.
In my last post, I overreacted to the what I felt was being portrayed in the U.S. media. And while I don't retract any of the statements I made condemning those who stand to benefit from such propagations which still as of yet are patently false, I was much too hasty to assert that an uprising similar to those in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya or protests like those in Bahrain, Yemen, or Oman won't happen here and that they wouldn't find support amongst a pacified and/or scared population. I still believe that there hasn't been enough fire to warrant the kind of smoke being blown around on U.S. televisions, but I will say that it is impossible to know what will serve as or if there will be a spark. I should also iterate that the situation will continue to grow more contentious in the future, and while this might not be the time for dramatic change in Saudi, that time might not be too far off.
* A teacher at my school was fired for discussing protesting with his students and we have been expressly warned in sternly-worded emails and an all-faculty meeting that such topics are never appropriate and are grounds for immediate dismissal.
My sampling of Saudi youth consists of 18-20 year old university students who come across as significantly spoiled and content in their lives and their ideas about the future. I'm not sure that they would be in favor of bottom-up reform, but it also is very true that they most likely would not share those opinions with me and certainly not in a public or school setting if they did happen to hold them.* Also, the Westerners I'm most likely to encounter are fed the same party line about people being happy and that the state is in complete control and wouldn't be well informed of any popular dissent-- quite similarly to your humbled blogger.
The truth is that there are a lot of people who I don't encounter who are young, unemployed, don't feel represented by the government, and lack the opportunities that the Saudi Arabia of as recently as 10 years ago offered them. Sixty percent of the population is under 30, and unemployment figures are sharply skewed to mask the problem. A vast majority of the population is not "pacified", as I put it, and it was unfair of me to make such a hasty generalization based on such limited exposure. The old remedy of handouts and benefits is outdated and unsustainable and most likely will cease to be effective. People want jobs. My students even, who seem so carefree and contented, will find that the jobs simply won't be there when they graduate. The world they will enter is not that of their parents when there was more money to go around to a lot fewer people. Rising food prices and inflation have compounded these issues and wages and benefits in many peoples' case are not sufficient enough to start and support a family.
It should also be remembered that there have been voices of dissent even among the Saudi royal family, which itself is experiencing fractioning, and that this is a recent phenomena. People high up have joined voices with influential Saudis living abroad in making calls for changes including more freedoms for women and implementing a constitutional monarchy. These voices obviously face strong opposition from the many influential clerics and imams as well as a majority of the royal family, but their existence is something that needs to be recognized.
It is also impossible to predict how the government will react to demonstrations if they do take place, and it is even more difficult to say how and if Saudi police and military will take action against their own people including arrest and/or violent repression. Additionally, the international community including the White House and U.S. based Human Rights Watch have called for Saudis to allow peaceful protest which may prove to further temper the governments reaction and will, at the very least, put a spotlight on it.
Personally though, I am still skeptical that much in the way of revolution will come from the actions being planned for this month or in the immediate future. In addition to the power that the Saudi government itself will wield in order to limit demonstrations and any resulting uprising, the international community, especially (needless to say) the U.S., has a lot to lose if the power structure here is disturbed. If things were to start going down here like elsewhere in the Arab world, it's hard to imagine that the U.S. would play as passive a role as they have in other countries.
In my last post, I overreacted to the what I felt was being portrayed in the U.S. media. And while I don't retract any of the statements I made condemning those who stand to benefit from such propagations which still as of yet are patently false, I was much too hasty to assert that an uprising similar to those in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya or protests like those in Bahrain, Yemen, or Oman won't happen here and that they wouldn't find support amongst a pacified and/or scared population. I still believe that there hasn't been enough fire to warrant the kind of smoke being blown around on U.S. televisions, but I will say that it is impossible to know what will serve as or if there will be a spark. I should also iterate that the situation will continue to grow more contentious in the future, and while this might not be the time for dramatic change in Saudi, that time might not be too far off.
* A teacher at my school was fired for discussing protesting with his students and we have been expressly warned in sternly-worded emails and an all-faculty meeting that such topics are never appropriate and are grounds for immediate dismissal.
This is definitely the start of change, if even just the breaking of psychological barriers. The kingdom does not have a tradition of protest or civil disobedience, so numbers are expected to be small tomorrow. However, it's impossible to predict what events will unfold, both the actions of the protesters and the response of the state. Events tomorrow may or may not create that spark needed to mobilize the masses, but one thing is for sure, Saudi is already changed. The state is increasingly aware of their vulnerabilities, and are resorting to tactics that have worked in the past. However, the grievances being aired by the various movements for change do not seems to be deterred for the moment. The grip of fear and complacency has begun to loosen in the Saudi psyche and the rate of which will determine the pace of change.
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