Smoke

While it seems that Saudi Arabia isn’t entirely immune to the wave of protests sweeping through and forever changing the Arab world, it needs to be understood that Saudi is not by any stretch of the imagination in danger of revolution.  The small protests in the Eastern Province, mainly by Shias demanding the release of political prisoners and more access to government jobs and benefits, have not been on a scale anywhere near that of even the smallest protests in neighboring countries in the region.  We’re talking hundreds of people.  Not thousands, not tens of thousands and certainly not millions—hundreds.  Present during both instances of protest last week were more security forces than demonstrators.  A few people were arrested but there was no need for violent crowd control.  Any mention of “eminent upheaval” and resulting $12 a gallon gas prices should be viewed with enough scrutiny as to seriously question the speaker’s sources, their sanity, and last but certainly not least, their agenda. 

That is not to say, however, that the Saudi Government is taking the threat of protest lightly.  They’ve recently released a statement reiterating to the public that any form of demonstration, protest, or sit-in is illegal, against Sharia law, and will be dealt with using all necessary force by security personnel.  There have been calls on facebook for mass protests, or “Days of Rage”, to take place in larger cities such as Riyadh and Jeddah, and more than 17,000 people have reportedly hit the ‘like’ button.  The first of such days is this Friday, immediately following the midday prayers as has been the modus operandi of protesters throughout this entire period of unrest in the Middle East. To be honest, I am more than a little curious to see what will happen.  But please don’t let that be any indication that anyone here, myself included, is operating under the belief that anything will come of these calls to action or of any protests that may happen to take place, or that they will reach a scale to put anybody here in danger. The idea to many, is laughable. 

First of all, they will in no way be able to get the number of people to come out as has been the case in the other Arab countries experiencing popular uprisings.  As I’ve written in previous posts, I feel that the general public is either too pacified, too scared, or both, and given the $37 billion benefits package the king has recently promised to roll out as well as the “reminder” of what the state’s response to protests will be, neither feeling is without justification.  The people who are pacified-- the large majority in my opinion-- assign the unrest to the small Shiite minority and some even agree that demonstrations against the king are not only against Islam, but unjustified.  Why would they want to upset a power structure that, after all, has benefitted them?  The ones who are scared-- and this basically comprises the rest of the population-- have very good reason to be.  Dissent will not be tolerated, especially on the days mentioned via social networking sites.  I fully expect there to be, like in the Eastern Province, more security personnel than protesters, even if somehow protesters manage to gather in the thousands.  I’d guess there will literally be enough police and military to arrest everyone present without much trouble and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s exactly what happens, if there are even gatherings at all.  The capability of the state’s security to largely outnumber protesters will almost guarantee that deadly force won’t have to be used-- if the Saudis aren’t altogether inept-- and therefore further protests and days of rage will not gather momentum as they have in other countries.  Bottom line, I and every single person, Arab or Western, Teacher or Cab driver, Muslim or not, that I have talked to can’t even fathom any sort of unrest or public demonstrations that would have any sort of destabilizing effect on the government or security.

So then why am I getting messages from friends and family in the U.S. asking me with great concern if everything is still OK in Saudi?  Why am I reading that the wave has finally reached the Kingdom?  Why am I hearing about news reports predicting worldwide economic collapse when the Saudi monarchy falls and oil exports dwindle?  The answer, I believe, can be found by looking at who is to benefit from the propagation of such falsehoods.  It’s hard to show that oil companies don’t reap the most profits when oil prices are at their highest due to fear in the market.  I also can’t help but point to the American media who have turned fear and “breaking news” journalism into profitable entertainment that is meant to enrage and incite audiences without any thought presumably being given to the idea of informing them.  I also wonder about neo-conservatives whose worldwide as well as domestic political, military, and economic agendas would stand to benefit from a more unified and fearful electorate in either the anticipation or wake of the next great shock.  

Regardless of these factors though, no one can say that any government in the Middle East no matter how effective their power apparatus is out of the woods just yet.  It's also worth noting that no one in Libya or Egypt thought revolution could happen there either.  But please, in the meantime, don’t believe everything you hear or read about what’s going on in the Kingdom.  Because for all the smoke, there doesn't seem to be any fire.